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When facing a difficult decision, ask yourself:
You’re searching for this book for a reason. You’ve heard it’s a game-changer. Let’s confirm that. thinking in bets pdf github
The core thesis: Most of life is not chess (perfect information) but poker (imperfect information). You can make the right decision and still lose because of luck. You can make a terrible decision and win.
The key framework – “Resulting”: Duke introduces the concept of resulting—judging the quality of a decision solely by the outcome. For example: You can buy a legal PDF directly from:
The remedy: Treat every decision like a bet. Write down: “I believe X will happen, with Y% confidence.” Then, when the outcome arrives, revisit your confidence level. This separates skill from luck.
The “Backcasting” method: Before making a big decision, assume it fails miserably. Write a 2-minute history of why it failed. Then assume it succeeds wildly and write that history. This exposes hidden risks and opportunities. The remedy: Treat every decision like a bet
GitHub repositories often host “free resource lists,” “knowledge bases,” or “book collections” in PDF format. Users share these to bypass paywalls. A typical search for thinking in bets pdf github leads to repositories like:
However, most of these are quickly taken down due to DMCA copyright infringement notices.
