Thinking In Bets Annie Duke Pdf May 2026

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Duke redefines a "bet" not as a gamble, but as a decision about an uncertain future. Every time you make a choice, you are betting resources (time, money, energy) on a specific outcome. This mindset forces you to acknowledge that nothing is 100% certain. thinking in bets annie duke pdf

Most decisions are made under uncertainty, but we treat them like chess (deterministic) instead of poker (probabilistic). Duke, a former professional poker player, argues that thinking in bets separates decision quality from outcome quality—a good decision can have a bad result, and vice versa. Read it if: